Sleepy Joe Ahead in All Four Early Voting States
For some time now, former Vice President and current White House hopeful Joe Biden’s candidacy has seemed to be on thin ice. In October, the polls screamed out Warren’s name. In November, Mayor Pete Buttigieg took center stage. And in December, the socialistic Sanders soared in the polls, leaving many to count Biden out of the presidential race.
But now, after a few months of floundering, he has not only made a comeback but, according to new polls, is actually on top in all four early voting states. Although, if we look closer at the RCP national average, we can see that Biden only spent one day, not in first place.
All of this has a slightly familiar feel to it if you think about it. Trump’s polling in 2016 was somewhat similar. In October, he was shown to be clearly behind Hillary Clinton after the “Access Hollywood” tapes were released. But then came some change. As the race dwindled, all those who were undecided began to choose a side, decreasing the deficit between the two candidates.
And that is precisely what seems to be happening here. With each poll taken, there are fewer and fewer voters who claim to be undecided. And it seems that most are putting their eggs in Biden’s basket. And given a choice between him and the other three in the top four, we don’t blame them.
After all, he is the safest pick, the “name brand.” One who is well known and been around forever. Voters feel comfortable with him.
It’s reminiscent of Republican Mitt Romney’s presidential run in 2012, as well as McCain’s in 2008. In the case of Romney, each of his opponents for the GOP nomination did well in the polls at one time or another. However, in the end, the voters went with the “safe” choice. McCain, similarly, had voters undecided for months before they chose him for the nomination. And why? Because they knew him best.
As I mentioned before, Biden is the most well-known and, therefore, he is the most electable. And the polls are beginning to show evidence to that.
However, in looking at the numbers above, there are at least two things I must point out.
The first is that Nevada has only had one poll since November. So while Biden is shown a significant lead at the moment there, it is based on a single questionnaire. In just a few weeks, that could change drastically.
The second note I must make is that in both Iowa and New Hampshire, his lead on Sanders is barely a lead at all. in New Hampshire, he is up by only 1 point, and in Iowa, even less at a mere .4th of a point. If anything at all happens within the next few weeks, in any candidate’s campaign, Biden’s lead might be forgotten. Then again, Bernie is still doing well at the moment, so it might be sooner than we think.
Furthermore, we must also note that these new RCP averages come from two individual polls that currently show Biden ahead.
The first comes from Monmouth in Iowa and shows him to lead by six points. But other Iowa polls show a much different outcome, such as one by the Des Moines Register that has Sanders in the lead by five points, and Biden in fourth place with only 15%. So the question is which Iowa poll is the outlier here?
When it comes to New Hampshire, the Boston Herald poll “has Biden in first place at 26%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 22% and Warren at 18%. Pete Buttigieg attracts 7% and late entrant Michael Bloomberg 4%… The poll results represent a significant change from a poll in October that showed Warren (25%) and Biden (24%) in a statistical dead heat. But Warren was also polling much higher nationally at that point,” according to NBC.
This the floundering I talked about earlier. As mentioned above, Biden had 24% in October. This then dropped to a mere 13.7 in the state in early December. But he has surged since the Christmas holiday and has been in the lead or nearly so in all four of the latest polls.
Once again, this trend speaks of his electability. As the race winds down, those who see Bernie and Warren as too far left, and Buttigieg as too young and green, Biden seems the obvious choice. But it doesn’t mean anyone else can be counted out just yet.