What is the Actual Death Rate? Higher or Lower Than Expected?

What is the Actual Death Rate? Higher or Lower Than Expected?

With a worldwide pandemic going on right now, it’s hard to gauge what the actual threat is. Coronavirus is obviously a severe illness and can cause death. However, it seems the risks are not all the same. Some people become violently ill and are defeated by the infection, while others seem entirely immune.

And with the virus being so new to the human population around the world, no one really knows enough about it to make for sure predictions or even assumptions about the death rate.

Sure, some have tried, but based on what evidence? Most studies are made up of those who have worst-case scenario symptoms and in places where the infection has hit the hardest.

Take Italy, for example. Their nation has been inundated with case after case, and its government and medical officials report a death toll hovering around 9 percent. But it’s is also a nation where socialized medicine has become overwhelmed under the strain of the virus. Most doctors are forced to choose who to treat, leaving all those over 70 to fend for themselves.

The World Health Organization or WHO has also made its own prediction of around 3.4%. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus remarked on March 3, “While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection and some will suffer severe disease. Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1 percent of those infected.”

However, these numbers are based on those who have tested positive for the virus, and as we know, the tests are in short supply. This means that, for the most part, only those with known symptoms and who have recently come into contact with positive COVID-19 cases are being tested. So the sample of this study cannot be considered random by any means.

And yet still other studies, such as a recent one from Johns Hopkins University, note that in places like the United States and Germany, the death toll is only around 1 percent.

A study done by Harvard University and the University of Hong Kong in China, where the pandemic began, said, “We estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4%.”

But once again, these findings are based on not so randomly completed and very limited tests, as well as a completely different type of healthcare infrastructure.

So which is the most accurate? Which one should be taken as fact?

According to Professor John P.A. Ioannidis of Stanford University School of Medicine, none of them should be.

He wrote in a piece published in STAT last week, that “The current coronavirus disease, Covid-19, has been called a once-in-a-century pandemic. But it may also be a once-in-a-century evidence fiasco.”

Ioannidis went on to explain that “the data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.”

Ioannidis points out that the only closed population that was tested was that of the Diamond Princess cruise ship. But even then, there are problems. He noted that the death rate here was only about 1%. However, the population was primarily made up of elderly persons, who are known to be more heavily affected by it.

We can try to project this onto the rest of the population, which, according to Ioannidis, gives a mortality rate of just 0.125%. But has he states, “this estimate is based on extremely thin data… the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.022%) to five times higher (0.625%).

However, in either case, these estimations are much lower than that of the WHO.

Does that mean we should throw caution to the wind? Absolutely not. But we say ‘yes’ to hope, hope that data we can actually use will soon be provided.

editor

11 thoughts on “What is the Actual Death Rate? Higher or Lower Than Expected?

  1. People with chronic health conditions are the ones at risk. They should stay home if not already retired., Everyone else go back to work. The flu is worse.

    1. No one as yet can truly know the novel Covid-19 infection rate to mortality. China isn’t giving out correct info of only some 1% demise, many think. The Italian experience has an unusually high death rate of 9% as is Spain
      comparable to past flu epidemics. So.Korea has the best but small data. The US stats are fast evolving & may become the most reliable, given our modern medical system, reporting transparency & open society. Also possible that figures are conflated, admixing flu & corona virus figures. Let’s trust this crisis will be over soon.

  2. Maybe the ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT aspires know something the rest of us don’t? I believe I’ve read where the W.H.O. Is going to have a vital role in the plot to transform the world into a ONE WORLD ENTITY! Maybe the BILDERBERG gatherers should tell us more about the Coronavirus! Tell us more about the plans to look forward to this SECRETIVE CHANGE in our lives! We know this is planned we know past POTUS’S and CIA, NSA, ATF, Rothschild, Rockefeller, DuPont, Kraft, Clinton, Kerry, Obama, Geithner, Bush’s, Kushner, and many others have gathered and discussed the plan to rule the world, and to rid the world, of the middle-class, so why wait? Why keep us in the dark? You rich sons of bitches should tell us what we have to look forward to!

  3. I personally don’t give a damn what happens on earth, you people have all the money, you have anything money can buy, is it boredom? Or are you people twisted, narcissistic, ass holes who think you must rule? Tell us Caligula, which one of you has the need to feel like a God? SOROS has already shown his feeling of a Godlike creature, I think he was born to be a piece of shit traitor who ratted out his own countrymen and changed his name to escape the death camps in Hungary during the holocaust. If that’s the type of cowardous-people, you all are, then why wait? Why keep it a secret? Is that a part of your illness?

  4. Tell us all about your secretive gatherings, are there plenty of kidnapped little boy’s and girls for your sick enjoyment? I know if Bill Clinton is attending, he likes little boys, and boats! The untouchables, Soros, Clapper, Brennan, Comey, Baker, Wray, Bush, Obama, Kerry, Kushner, celebrities are also invited to these disgusting secret, rituals! How about animals? Goats, Sheep? I guess when you reach a certain degree of wealth, you lose touch with reality, bored with the worlds best automobiles, vacation destinations, boats, jets, real estate, women, men, food, drink, you people have to resort to being like Gods? Please don’t keep secrets, wouldn’t it be a rush to know the little people know they will die? Make it a gameshow, hunt us on television, why not? As far as I know it’s never been done, isn’t that your desire? Please include us all!

  5. So you big-shots, want to play GOD, fair enough,
    no doubt the problem with closing borders, you get the Mainstream Media involved to steer the masses, like cowboys on a cattle-drive, you want to go a certain direction so you have the media vilify any other notion than your agenda, I get it! Open Borders, well that isn’t a problem for you ultra rich, you live behind walls, and you don’t need guns because you have armed guards, I get it! You are gonna have a problem disarming citizens of America, I’m tellin you right now, whomever you use to disarm us, blood will flow! You see, many many many of us would rather die fighting, than live under your rules! In other words FUCK YOU, COME TAKE EM!! It would however be much more satisfying if you Bilderberg mother fuckers and DNC politicians came yourselves, wouldn’t it be more satisfying if you did it yourselves? NO? COWARDS! How bout we come to you? We know that your plan for a ONE WORLD NIRVANA doesn’t even include middle class Americans, so if we are to die, we will die fighting, it’s just how we are! Ask the British!

  6. I can’t imagine that Trump was the Bilderberg choice? Someone screwed the pooch! Probably that Kenyan and HRC! Two individuals who have never even run a lemonade stand! These two fucked up! It had to be humiliating to have cheated and still lost! LOL The reaction on HRC’s face when she was informed she had lost was perfect for everyone that loathe her, and as one, I embraced it! She kinda looked like Lee Harvey Oswald, when Jack Ruby shot him in the gut! You super wealthy Bilderberg sons of bitches remember that I know! Priceless, and only outdone by the mere fact that Trump won and Obama didn’t get his third term! I could be wrong, maybe Trump is what you sick narcissistic bastards planned all along? I just can’t imagine that, after the way you pathetic people cried! You obviously love Bill and Hill. Obama though? Some eccentric sense of humor you folks have, like the movie “Trading Places” a one dollar bet? Well you can’t win em all. We won’t be disarmed pleasantly!

  7. The One Thing You Elites Can’t Buy, Eternal-Life! Eternal Death is in your near future and since I won’t be around to see you, enjoy hell.

  8. Pretty good article. Ioannidis’ estimates are outliers, but fatality rates could be between 0.5 and 1.0% under optimal medical conditions. Which we are far from experiencing in the USA. (#1!)

  9. All I can say is look at the flu results. I have read that most people really die of pneumonia. because the flu compromises the immune system thereby allowing pneumonia to take hold. China listed many as dying of pneumonia. So do people die of what cause, corona virus or pneumonia or some other complication? Just something to think about in Hangzhou China in 2017 they did have a very deadly strain of pneumonia.

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