Poll Shows a Huge ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Between Trump and Biden
One of the things that torque Trump supporters more than anything, except perhaps the behavior of the mainstream media, are polls that show former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of President Trump in head to head matchups. Even given the fact that polls taken in the spring have little resemblance to what happens in November, the consistent gap is aggravating and puzzling at the same time.
After all, how many people could prefer an elderly, clearly ill man who has been credibly accused of being a sexual predator to Donald J. Trump, who personifies energy in the executive? Trump did enable the roaring economy that was only halted by the worst pandemic since 1918. Trump, his supporters are assured, is the best hope for starting economic growth again and paying back China for the coverup of the severity of the coronavirus pandemic.
A recent article in Hot Air, referencing the latest Emerson Poll, has something of an explanation. The poll showed Biden ahead of Trump by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent. However, the same poll shows a decided enthusiasm gap that favors the president.
“Nearly half of Joe Biden voters, 45%, said they were very or extremely excited to support Biden in the general election, compared to 64% of Trump voters that said they were very or extremely excited to support Trump in November. Nearly a quarter of Biden’s supporters, 26%, said they were not that excited, compared to 15% of Trump voters. Furthermore, 65% of those who voted for Senator Bernie Sanders in the primary season said they were not that excited for Biden.”
One of the reasons that polls taken six or so months before a presidential election is not necessarily predictive is that they tally registered voters rather than likely voters. Polling organizations have a better handle on who are likely voters closer to an election, depending on outside events and how each candidate performs on the campaign trail. Hot Air explains further:
“Polls matter, but turnout matters more. Voters who are not enthusiastic for a candidate don’t turn out as much, even in normal conditions. When the election will take place in the middle of a pandemic, enthusiasm matters much more. No one risks their health to cast a ballot for someone they’re only iffy about.”
Elections are w9on by people who show up, not necessarily people who answer pollsters’ questions. That is why sometimes elections have unexpected results. 2016 is a prime example, when Trump pulled off an unexpected electoral college victory, buoying his supporters and utterly dejected Hillary Clinton’s acolytes.
Another reason that the current polls are likely not reflective of what is likely to happen in November has been the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic. Biden has been hiding in his basement, not saying a lot and nothing that has not been scripted. In the meanwhile, at least until recently, Trump has been holding daily press briefings on the pandemic, mixing it up with the mainstream media, and causing, as he tends to do, controversy.
The briefings and the tongue lashing that the president gave the gentlemen and ladies of the press who annoyed him has fired up the base. But, according to another story on Hot Air, it gave everyone else heartburn. The fact that the media distorted the president’s musings about injecting “disinfectant” to treat coronavirus did not help matters.
In any case, Trump was understandably unhappy when he received some internal polling data that showed him losing the 2020 election. On the other hand, he seems to have followed the advice of cutting back on the media briefings and, especially, the confrontations with his enemies in the media.
Trump is canny enough to know that Angry Trump can only get him so fat, even if he has a lot to be irate about. Inspiring Trump, the man who advocated a better future than the past, was the man who ultimately won the 2016 election and will win again in 2020. Most pundits believe that the coronavirus pandemic is both a danger and an opportunity.
If October comes around with a solution to the pandemic in sight and the economy on the mend, President Trump wins reelection. That is one reason that he has instituted the aptly named Operation Warp Speed to develop a vaccine with a view of having 100 million doses ready to be delivered by the dawn of the new year.
Then, enthused Trump voters will flock to the polls while dejected Biden voters hang back in despair. It will show how enthusiasm and not necessarily polls win elections.